rec.autos.simulators

Speculation about Papyrus...

Tim

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Tim » Thu, 05 Sep 2002 21:00:53

Here is my doom and gloom prediction for Papyrus. I don't like it, and
I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I feel it'll play out.

The corporate loyalty to Papyrus will end the day it fails to turn a
profit, and they'll be gone.
I think the next NASCAR release will be the last Papyrus racing sim.
If Sierra even keeps the individuals, they're going to be absorbed
back into Sierra and assigned to other projects. I actually think its
more likely that they'll just be cut loose to go their own ways.

There will be no GPL2, no CART sim, and no Rally sim. Unless the
members of Papyrus decide to do a side project (which doesn't pay the
bills), I think they'll be working on console titles. That's where the
market is going.

For anyone that is about to pound on me about multi-player, Sony and
Microsoft are on the verge of launching multi-player services on their
consoles. Sony has an adapter, and the XBox has an ethernet adapter
built in. This will be the Second Coming of online ***, the one
where all the dummies get involved. There will be millions of them,
and they'll spend a lot of money. They won't want sims. They'll want
sports games, beat-em-ups and action driving games like Grand Theft
Auto.

Please set me straight. :-(

MadDAW

Speculation about Papyrus...

by MadDAW » Thu, 05 Sep 2002 21:20:04

I'm pretty much in agreement with you. What I'm really curious about is how
much the West Brothers are going to up the price of RL after the news. Talk
about a captive market. The upside is if there is nothing worth buying after
nr2003 then there is no reason to upgrade hardware. If we don't need any new
hardware just think of the money we will save.

MadDAWG

Doug Elliso

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Doug Elliso » Thu, 05 Sep 2002 21:49:05


up the price of RL after the news.

I dont think the lack of yet another Nascar sim in another 12 months after
Feb 2003 is really going to change things in that respect.

Doug

MadDAW

Speculation about Papyrus...

by MadDAW » Thu, 05 Sep 2002 22:26:45

Well if you follow Tim's progression that the NASCAR sim will be the last
"real" sim, provided EA doesn't blow our socks off. Now if there is no more
"real" sims then the West Brothers are the only ones left producing
simulations. All companies will charge as much as they think they can get
for their product. Without any other alternatives they will defiantly be
able to charge more.

MadDAWG

Doug Elliso

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Doug Elliso » Thu, 05 Sep 2002 22:46:12


The N2k2 / N2k3 engine is, imho, too valuble for there not to be a follow on
product post-Nascar. I dont know WHAT - but I think there will be something
with 4 wheels..

RL is not going to have any competition at any point anyway. It's a whole
lot more than a basic race sim -  and will cost a whole lot more as well -
not because they CAN, but because the economies of scale for something like
this dictate that it HAS to be. ( see X-Plane)

Doug

Fatbo

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Fatbo » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 00:39:43




> > > I dont think the lack of yet another Nascar sim in another 12 months
> after
> > > Feb 2003 is really going to change things in that respect.

> > > Doug

> > Well if you follow Tim's progression that the NASCAR sim will be the
last
> > "real" sim, provided EA doesn't blow our socks off. ...

> The N2k2 / N2k3 engine is, imho, too valuble for there not to be a follow
on
> product post-Nascar. I dont know WHAT - but I think there will be
something
> with 4 wheels..

> RL is not going to have any competition at any point anyway. It's a whole
> lot more than a basic race sim -  and will cost a whole lot more as well -
> not because they CAN, but because the economies of scale for something
like
> this dictate that it HAS to be. ( see X-Plane)

> Doug

I couldn't find any price info on West Brothers' site for RL, so those
anyone have any idea how much RL will cost, any speculation or a ballpark
figure?

Fatbob

Gerry Aitke

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Gerry Aitke » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 00:48:02


> Here is my doom and gloom prediction for Papyrus. I don't like it, and
> I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I feel it'll play out.

> The corporate loyalty to Papyrus will end the day it fails to turn a
> profit, and they'll be gone.

<SNIP>

Ubisoft shall ride forth on a serpents' back, and
the eyes shall be red with the *** of living creatures,
and the *** of Babylon shall rise over the hill of
e***ment and throughout the land there will be a
great rubbing of parts....

And he shall bear a nine-bladed sword. Nine-bladed. Not two.
Or five or seven, but nine, which he shall wield on all
wretched sinners and that includes you sir, and the horns shall
be on the head ...

Doug Elliso

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Doug Elliso » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 01:07:49

Anything we say is speculative - but going on the theory that it's a similar
business model to X-Plane. - something like 100 would be the ball park -
but again - I'm guessing.

People usually go "FRICKING HOW MUCH" - then go down to PC World and pay
70+ for Flight SIm 2002 Pro and 20 three times over for addons and dont
bat an eye lid.

Doug

Don Wilsh

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Don Wilsh » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 01:09:53

You and I agree.. I said the same thing Tim.    I mentioned in my post
sony.net and microsoft.net for
XBOX and PS2..   This was all explained at GDC 2000 2 years ago...

--
Donald Wilshe
888 588-9207
Martel Brothers Performance, Worlds Largest On-Line Auto Parts Mfg Catalog
Library
www.martelbros.com
Other Interest:
www.ivga.com
www.games-advertising.com
www.whra.com


Tim

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Tim » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 01:23:14

On Wed, 04 Sep 2002 16:48:02 +0100, Gerry Aitken


>Ubisoft shall ride forth on a serpents' back, and
>the eyes shall be red with the *** of living creatures,
>and the *** of Babylon shall rise over the hill of
>e***ment and throughout the land there will be a
>great rubbing of parts....

>And he shall bear a nine-bladed sword. Nine-bladed. Not two.
>Or five or seven, but nine, which he shall wield on all
>wretched sinners and that includes you sir, and the horns shall
>be on the head ...

Here I was thinking nothing good was going to come of this!
Thanks for the cheer up.

PS. I get the *** thing before the chopping, right?

Schoone

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Schoone » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 01:28:14

FYI Microsoft.NET has nothing to do with online ***.


> You and I agree.. I said the same thing Tim.    I mentioned in my post
> sony.net and microsoft.net for
> XBOX and PS2..   This was all explained at GDC 2000 2 years ago...

> --
> Donald Wilshe
> 888 588-9207
> Martel Brothers Performance, Worlds Largest On-Line Auto Parts Mfg Catalog
> Library
> www.martelbros.com
> Other Interest:
> www.ivga.com
> www.games-advertising.com
> www.whra.com



> > Here is my doom and gloom prediction for Papyrus. I don't like it, and
> > I hope I'm wrong, but this is how I feel it'll play out.

> > The corporate loyalty to Papyrus will end the day it fails to turn a
> > profit, and they'll be gone.
> > I think the next NASCAR release will be the last Papyrus racing sim.
> > If Sierra even keeps the individuals, they're going to be absorbed
> > back into Sierra and assigned to other projects. I actually think its
> > more likely that they'll just be cut loose to go their own ways.

> > There will be no GPL2, no CART sim, and no Rally sim. Unless the
> > members of Papyrus decide to do a side project (which doesn't pay the
> > bills), I think they'll be working on console titles. That's where the
> > market is going.

> > For anyone that is about to pound on me about multi-player, Sony and
> > Microsoft are on the verge of launching multi-player services on their
> > consoles. Sony has an adapter, and the XBox has an ethernet adapter
> > built in. This will be the Second Coming of online ***, the one
> > where all the dummies get involved. There will be millions of them,
> > and they'll spend a lot of money. They won't want sims. They'll want
> > sports games, beat-em-ups and action driving games like Grand Theft
> > Auto.

> > Please set me straight. :-(

Jon

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Jon » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 02:53:11

"real" sims then the West Brothers are the only ones left producing

I did not know The West Brothers had anything in
production....................

Tim Mise

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Tim Mise » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 03:21:19

OK, I'll try to set you straight...

Papryus' Nascar series is highly profitable.  Why?  Because they don't do
the expensive practice of designing a brand new racing game every year.
They follow the same guidelines as the successful EA Sports franchise by
updating the same product every year and releasing it as such.  Sure, once
every 3-4 years they'll update the engine but the profitability of adding
some features to an existing product and reselling it at full price is hugh!
Take a look at NR2002 for a moment and the differences between it and the N4
program:  A new 2002 car set, three new tracks, a few graphic upgrade
options and a tweak here and there to the game engine and viola!, you have a
new product to sell at $39.99 each.  How many of us still just use N4 and
haven't bought NR2002 yet?  Probably less than 10% so this strategy works.
When Papy introduces NR2003, they know and we know that we'll rush right
down to the store to snatch it up at full price.  (Maybe they'll even thow
in a $5 rebate for current owners for good measure!)

-Tim


Tim

Speculation about Papyrus...

by Tim » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 05:45:22

On Wed, 4 Sep 2002 11:21:19 -0700, "Tim Miser"


>OK, I'll try to set you straight...

>Papryus' Nascar series is highly profitable.  Why?  Because they don't do
>the expensive practice of designing a brand new racing game every year.
>They follow the same guidelines as the successful EA Sports franchise by
>updating the same product every year and releasing it as such.  Sure, once
>every 3-4 years they'll update the engine but the profitability of adding
>some features to an existing product and reselling it at full price is hugh!
>Take a look at NR2002 for a moment and the differences between it and the N4
>program:  A new 2002 car set, three new tracks, a few graphic upgrade
>options and a tweak here and there to the game engine and viola!, you have a
>new product to sell at $39.99 each.  How many of us still just use N4 and
>haven't bought NR2002 yet?  Probably less than 10% so this strategy works.
>When Papy introduces NR2003, they know and we know that we'll rush right
>down to the store to snatch it up at full price.  (Maybe they'll even thow
>in a $5 rebate for current owners for good measure!)

I think you missed a major point of this discussion, Tim.
We're talking about *after* NR2003.. They (Sierra/Papy) lose the right
to the NASCAR name after this last title. How will they updating it
then?
EA then has NASCAR and F1, which apparently has some restrictions
related to multi-player anyway.
Does Papyrus take a chance like they did with SODA  or GPL trying
graft some new idea into the NASCAR engine?
I hope so, but I'm thinking not, because GPL and SODA didn't meet
expectations. Unless the pitch for something new is stellar, I'm
thinking the N4 engine is dead in the water.
My hope has been for a modern sports car sim, but it looks like LFS
might fill that niche perfectly. I hate to see it come to this, but
without NASCAR, Papyrus looks to be in bad shape.
bif198

Speculation about Papyrus...

by bif198 » Fri, 06 Sep 2002 06:03:05

I have to agree with Tim.  In the beginning (and I am one that had NASCAR and
NASCAR 2) they really did make a whole new game.  But around the time after
NASCAR 2 Papyrus found that magic EA formula which I hate.  Which is just enough
change to make them buy it.  It was after Nascar 2 that we then got Nascar 50th,
Nascar 1999.  And really they all were about the same program with little
differences and tweaks.  I personally refused to buy Nascar 50th because I could
see through their guise.  Then Nascar 3 which was a bigger difference.  Then
they went with Nascar 3, Legends and Truck series as the staples.  And we bought
them.  Then came Nascar  4.  It was going to be the one.  It was much different
over 3 and you had to get it.  BUT they screwed it up.  The game was un-drivable
and hyper-sensitive.  So like Tim said a few tweaks and viola n2k2.  Now I had
NO intention of buying n2k2 because I felt n2k2 should have only been a patch
for N4.  But unfortunately I caved to peer pressure.  All my weak league-mates
who did not see the guise ran right out and fell for the sucker buy that Papyrus
put out.  Now n2k2 is not even a year old and we are already talking about and
waiting for n2k3 and that just plays right into the hands of Papy.  They see
this and go "HA!  It is going to work.  These suckers will buy it again!"
Personally I can not believe the number of people that fall for the EA formula
of putting out just enough to make it different.  But the problems are the
consumers and that we are all in the mind set of "I have to be better than the
Jones'"  I say Rise UP!  Do NOT buy n2k3!  Send *** emails to Papy!  Tell them
we want a whole new game or don't bother!

That's my 2 cents.  Well maybe a penny and a half,
bif1988


> OK, I'll try to set you straight...

> Papryus' Nascar series is highly profitable.  Why?  Because they don't do
> the expensive practice of designing a brand new racing game every year.
> They follow the same guidelines as the successful EA Sports franchise by
> updating the same product every year and releasing it as such.  Sure, once
> every 3-4 years they'll update the engine but the profitability of adding
> some features to an existing product and reselling it at full price is hugh!
> Take a look at NR2002 for a moment and the differences between it and the N4
> program:  A new 2002 car set, three new tracks, a few graphic upgrade
> options and a tweak here and there to the game engine and viola!, you have a
> new product to sell at $39.99 each.  How many of us still just use N4 and
> haven't bought NR2002 yet?  Probably less than 10% so this strategy works.
> When Papy introduces NR2003, they know and we know that we'll rush right
> down to the store to snatch it up at full price.  (Maybe they'll even thow
> in a $5 rebate for current owners for good measure!)

> -Tim


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