Note: this is more a business case analysis than game analysis. Stop reading
now if you'll be bored!
The great things about this potential game are the focus on the features
that Sim Racers want - modularity, expansion, realistic physics, online
play. It really comes across as a mouth watering temptation.
However, before we get too e***d, I think we need to realistically
consider the business model and ask the question: Is this going to work? Are
West going to be able to pull this off?
I understand that West is a small (family?) outfit. Such an undertaking as
their new proposal requires huge capital and a lot of risk. Can a simulation
that requires a lot more work than a racing game, but appeals to a much
smaller, niche market, really be viable?
There are some promising signs:
Pricing model. The casual gamer will pay little more than street price for
the standard game. However, the dedicated Sim Racer will pay extra for each
option, and for new tracks. I would imagine that a full blown package with
all options and extra tracks might cost in the vicinity of US$500, plus
maybe a subscription for high level online racing. This is good thing. Sim
Racers have consistantly said that they would pay for the right product -
consider the recent threads about people demanding a GPL2 and saying that
they'd pay $500 for it!
Modular format. The creators understand that people want an evolving Sim,
with new cars, new tracks, and maybe even new concepts in racing. All of
this will add value to the base product and Intellecutal Property. However,
don't be surprised if unlike current sims, West control the additions to
their products and require all new cars/tracks to licenced from them
instead of freely available from third party enthusiasts. Maybe they will
encourage people by offereing a comission on new cars/tracks that are sold.
Vapourware?
After 2 years, WSC vanished into the vapourware cloud it had always been
in. It sees that West relied on a vapourware business model, hoping that VCs
or 3rd parties would take enough of an interest in their game to sponsor the
development. West was too small to take this risk by themselves. Racing
legends appears to be starting off the same way. We have been promised the
stars, but have seen nothing in concrete except a beautifully rendered, but
practically un-realistic racing car. Even with Moore's Law, it will take a
decade or so before we see cars with that level detail running around the
track together in real time!
The web site comes across to me a VC marketing tool, more than a realistic
"this is what is coming soon" type site.
Risk. To get this concept into production requires a huge amount of risk
taking. Not only does the game have to work, but there are issues of
infrastucture for hosting online racing, marketing, and finding a top notch
distribution outfit. Something of this scale is normally only taken on by
large corporations prepared to take the gamble. Remember that recently Papy
declined to do a GPL2, even though the Sim Racing community loved the
original so much. At the end of the day, Papy made a business decision -
they decided that even a very vocal niche market wasn't enough to justify
the expense of doing the game.
dot game boom?
After the dot com crashes of the last 2 years, we have seen a resurgance in
computer games, especially online ***. A lot of people are saying its the
next "big thing". In many ways I agree. Machines are get fast enough to some
wonderful stuff, and broadband has really taken off, so the infrastructure
is there to support a new generation of online ***.
However, have we already forgotten the lesson of the dot com boom? In the
end, it was mostly the new comers like web van that did the skyrocket and
fell back to earth. However, the traditional players ended up surviving and
now prosper. I wonder if it will be the same for ***?
Maybe I'm being a little too cynical. If West can get this game to at least
inital production, and the concept takes off, then they might be able to
sell out to one of the established big players and walk away smiling. It
might also drive forward the market and help create standards for wanted
peripherals such as FF pedals (inc clutch), and hydraulic***pits that
simulate motion and g-forces.
As for me, I'll take a wait and see. I *hope* it all works out.
Tim