rec.autos.simulators

Is this the death of the Xbox?

Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:14:57

Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich as
Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping the
PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.  My
guess is they'll be using something like Flash memory in the nextgen
consoles.  Like the hoary razor-blade paradigm, the h/w will come down to
$100 and they'll have to score some MAJOR hits with $25-$40 games.  This is
where Sony shines...and where MS is weak.  Which is why Sony will rule the
currently contested turf, and MS will move upscale, positioning the Xbox 2
as a living-room device, a PC-TV convergence appliance.  Can MS succeed
here?  Watch BMW and wireless convergence devices (cells, PDAs).  If MS can
get BMW's UI back on track, they might be able to win the battle for yer
couch.


> On Wed, 05 Mar 2003 20:00:22 GMT, "Steve Smith"

> >My sources say MS wants the Xbox Next (i.e., Lite, w/o a HD, with a lower
> >price point) in stores before Xmas.  That would tend to indicate both the
> >PS3 and the Xbox 2 (Internet Appliance/Set-Top Convergence Duz-All) will
> >roll out before Xmas '04.  Exciting times, huh?

> Damn.

> The other thing I'm wondering is how much a machine with 72 RISC chips
> is going to cost.  Even if they sell at half or one third of the cost
> to build, that's got to be like $3k to 4k at least...  Not to mention
> the cooling requirements, the mainframe-sized case, etc.  Sounds like
> a killer machine if what they're proposing is true, but just looking
> at how much similar RISC solutions (well as close as we can get, like
> a fully loaded Sunfire) cost, I dunno.

> Jason

Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:16:02

No, but you'll be able to run Office 3000 (referring to the price, not the
next millennium).


> WOW! Can I add a keyboard so I can run Wordperfect 4.2 for DOS?




Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:18:15

1. They can...and will.

2. When a game like Gran Turismo can gross over a billion U.S. dollars, it's
worth the "gut ache".

3. Blue laser.

4. No, that's the Xbox 2.


> 1. they still arn't sure if they can do it and 2. Programing will be a gut
> ache and i dought many programmers will take the time. 3. with all that
> proccessing power how big will the games be and on what type of cd will it
> come and 4. i have also heard that the p3 is no longer looking at being a
> concole machine, its being developed simular to a settop box that will
> handle every need of the home.


> > From a siliconvalley.com news story:

> > "With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a single chip:
> > eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which controls eight auxiliary
> > processors.

> > "Using sophisticated software to manage the workload, the PowerPC
> processors
> > will divide complicated problems into smaller tasks and tap as many of
the
> > auxiliary processors as necessary to tackle them.

> > "...Sony and its partners believe that if they can coordinate those
> > processors at maximum efficiency, the PS3 will be able to process a
> trillion
> > math operations per second -- the equivalent of 100 Intel Pentium 4
chips
> > and 1,000 times faster than processing power of the PS2."

> > Or abt. 500 times faster than the Xbox.

Schoone

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Schoone » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:35:01

"Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive"
Every look at the cost of flash memory compared to HD memory lately?  HD are
much cheaper.


> Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich as
> Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping
the
> PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
> they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.  My
> guess is they'll be using something like Flash memory in the nextgen
> consoles.  Like the hoary razor-blade paradigm, the h/w will come down to
> $100 and they'll have to score some MAJOR hits with $25-$40 games.  This
is
> where Sony shines...and where MS is weak.  Which is why Sony will rule the
> currently contested turf, and MS will move upscale, positioning the Xbox 2
> as a living-room device, a PC-TV convergence appliance.  Can MS succeed
> here?  Watch BMW and wireless convergence devices (cells, PDAs).  If MS
can
> get BMW's UI back on track, they might be able to win the battle for yer
> couch.



> > On Wed, 05 Mar 2003 20:00:22 GMT, "Steve Smith"

> > >My sources say MS wants the Xbox Next (i.e., Lite, w/o a HD, with a
lower
> > >price point) in stores before Xmas.  That would tend to indicate both
the
> > >PS3 and the Xbox 2 (Internet Appliance/Set-Top Convergence Duz-All)
will
> > >roll out before Xmas '04.  Exciting times, huh?

> > Damn.

> > The other thing I'm wondering is how much a machine with 72 RISC chips
> > is going to cost.  Even if they sell at half or one third of the cost
> > to build, that's got to be like $3k to 4k at least...  Not to mention
> > the cooling requirements, the mainframe-sized case, etc.  Sounds like
> > a killer machine if what they're proposing is true, but just looking
> > at how much similar RISC solutions (well as close as we can get, like
> > a fully loaded Sunfire) cost, I dunno.

> > Jason

Schoone

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Schoone » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 21:36:29

No need for blue laser, current games don't fill DVDs as is, lots of room to
work with yet on current media.


> 1. They can...and will.

> 2. When a game like Gran Turismo can gross over a billion U.S. dollars,
it's
> worth the "gut ache".

> 3. Blue laser.

> 4. No, that's the Xbox 2.



> > 1. they still arn't sure if they can do it and 2. Programing will be a
gut
> > ache and i dought many programmers will take the time. 3. with all that
> > proccessing power how big will the games be and on what type of cd will
it
> > come and 4. i have also heard that the p3 is no longer looking at being
a
> > concole machine, its being developed simular to a settop box that will
> > handle every need of the home.


> > > From a siliconvalley.com news story:

> > > "With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a single
chip:
> > > eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which controls eight auxiliary
> > > processors.

> > > "Using sophisticated software to manage the workload, the PowerPC
> > processors
> > > will divide complicated problems into smaller tasks and tap as many of
> the
> > > auxiliary processors as necessary to tackle them.

> > > "...Sony and its partners believe that if they can coordinate those
> > > processors at maximum efficiency, the PS3 will be able to process a
> > trillion
> > > math operations per second -- the equivalent of 100 Intel Pentium 4
> chips
> > > and 1,000 times faster than processing power of the PS2."

> > > Or abt. 500 times faster than the Xbox.

Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 22:10:19

Yes, but HDs are near the end of their cycle; flash mem is at the beginning.
HDs aren't getting cheaper, they're getting bigger.  There is a base cost in
gear like cases, motors, heads, etc. - all those 'spensive moving parts.  So
we're not getting 80-Mb. HDs for $10, we're getting 80-Gb HDs for $100.
SSNV (solid-state non-volatile) mem will go the other way - we'll be getting
256-Mb. Flash cards for $10.


> "Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive"
> Every look at the cost of flash memory compared to HD memory lately?  HD
are
> much cheaper.



> > Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich
as
> > Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping
> the
> > PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
> > they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.
My
> > guess is they'll be using something like Flash memory in the nextgen
> > consoles.  Like the hoary razor-blade paradigm, the h/w will come down
to
> > $100 and they'll have to score some MAJOR hits with $25-$40 games.  This
> is
> > where Sony shines...and where MS is weak.  Which is why Sony will rule
the
> > currently contested turf, and MS will move upscale, positioning the Xbox
2
> > as a living-room device, a PC-TV convergence appliance.  Can MS succeed
> > here?  Watch BMW and wireless convergence devices (cells, PDAs).  If MS
> can
> > get BMW's UI back on track, they might be able to win the battle for yer
> > couch.



> > > On Wed, 05 Mar 2003 20:00:22 GMT, "Steve Smith"

> > > >My sources say MS wants the Xbox Next (i.e., Lite, w/o a HD, with a
> lower
> > > >price point) in stores before Xmas.  That would tend to indicate both
> the
> > > >PS3 and the Xbox 2 (Internet Appliance/Set-Top Convergence Duz-All)
> will
> > > >roll out before Xmas '04.  Exciting times, huh?

> > > Damn.

> > > The other thing I'm wondering is how much a machine with 72 RISC chips
> > > is going to cost.  Even if they sell at half or one third of the cost
> > > to build, that's got to be like $3k to 4k at least...  Not to mention
> > > the cooling requirements, the mainframe-sized case, etc.  Sounds like
> > > a killer machine if what they're proposing is true, but just looking
> > > at how much similar RISC solutions (well as close as we can get, like
> > > a fully loaded Sunfire) cost, I dunno.

> > > Jason

Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 22:13:45

With all that processing power, Sony will want to produce bigger games w/o
having to do a lot of extra programming.  You could have a flite sim, for
example, with every square meter of the earth's surface (or at least that
already scanned by satellites) on the disk.


> No need for blue laser, current games don't fill DVDs as is, lots of room
to
> work with yet on current media.



> > 1. They can...and will.

> > 2. When a game like Gran Turismo can gross over a billion U.S. dollars,
> it's
> > worth the "gut ache".

> > 3. Blue laser.

> > 4. No, that's the Xbox 2.



> > > 1. they still arn't sure if they can do it and 2. Programing will be a
> gut
> > > ache and i dought many programmers will take the time. 3. with all
that
> > > proccessing power how big will the games be and on what type of cd
will
> it
> > > come and 4. i have also heard that the p3 is no longer looking at
being
> a
> > > concole machine, its being developed simular to a settop box that will
> > > handle every need of the home.


> > > > From a siliconvalley.com news story:

> > > > "With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a single
> chip:
> > > > eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which controls eight
auxiliary
> > > > processors.

> > > > "Using sophisticated software to manage the workload, the PowerPC
> > > processors
> > > > will divide complicated problems into smaller tasks and tap as many
of
> > the
> > > > auxiliary processors as necessary to tackle them.

> > > > "...Sony and its partners believe that if they can coordinate those
> > > > processors at maximum efficiency, the PS3 will be able to process a
> > > trillion
> > > > math operations per second -- the equivalent of 100 Intel Pentium 4
> > chips
> > > > and 1,000 times faster than processing power of the PS2."

> > > > Or abt. 500 times faster than the Xbox.

Schoone

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Schoone » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 22:15:46

Yes eventually but not today or tomorrow, flash is still expensive which was
my point.  If we are talking theory and 10 years down the road then fine but
not in the next year which is the timeframe for the next gen consoles to be
designed.


> Yes, but HDs are near the end of their cycle; flash mem is at the
beginning.
> HDs aren't getting cheaper, they're getting bigger.  There is a base cost
in
> gear like cases, motors, heads, etc. - all those 'spensive moving parts.
So
> we're not getting 80-Mb. HDs for $10, we're getting 80-Gb HDs for $100.
> SSNV (solid-state non-volatile) mem will go the other way - we'll be
getting
> 256-Mb. Flash cards for $10.



> > "Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive"
> > Every look at the cost of flash memory compared to HD memory lately?  HD
> are
> > much cheaper.



> > > Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As
rich
> as
> > > Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by

underpricing/dumping

- Show quoted text -

> > the
> > > PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
> > > they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.
> My
> > > guess is they'll be using something like Flash memory in the nextgen
> > > consoles.  Like the hoary razor-blade paradigm, the h/w will come down
> to
> > > $100 and they'll have to score some MAJOR hits with $25-$40 games.
This
> > is
> > > where Sony shines...and where MS is weak.  Which is why Sony will rule
> the
> > > currently contested turf, and MS will move upscale, positioning the
Xbox
> 2
> > > as a living-room device, a PC-TV convergence appliance.  Can MS
succeed
> > > here?  Watch BMW and wireless convergence devices (cells, PDAs).  If
MS
> > can
> > > get BMW's UI back on track, they might be able to win the battle for
yer
> > > couch.



> > > > On Wed, 05 Mar 2003 20:00:22 GMT, "Steve Smith"

> > > > >My sources say MS wants the Xbox Next (i.e., Lite, w/o a HD, with a
> > lower
> > > > >price point) in stores before Xmas.  That would tend to indicate
both
> > the
> > > > >PS3 and the Xbox 2 (Internet Appliance/Set-Top Convergence Duz-All)
> > will
> > > > >roll out before Xmas '04.  Exciting times, huh?

> > > > Damn.

> > > > The other thing I'm wondering is how much a machine with 72 RISC
chips
> > > > is going to cost.  Even if they sell at half or one third of the
cost
> > > > to build, that's got to be like $3k to 4k at least...  Not to
mention
> > > > the cooling requirements, the mainframe-sized case, etc.  Sounds
like
> > > > a killer machine if what they're proposing is true, but just looking
> > > > at how much similar RISC solutions (well as close as we can get,
like
> > > > a fully loaded Sunfire) cost, I dunno.

> > > > Jason

Larr

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Larr » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 22:50:53

Not all storage pricing is based on 'reality'.  Much of it is based on
'perceived value'.

Larry


> "Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive"
> Every look at the cost of flash memory compared to HD memory lately?  HD
are
> much cheaper.



> > Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich
as
> > Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping
> the
> > PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
> > they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.
My
> > guess is they'll be using something like Flash memory in the nextgen
> > consoles.  Like the hoary razor-blade paradigm, the h/w will come down
to
> > $100 and they'll have to score some MAJOR hits with $25-$40 games.  This
> is
> > where Sony shines...and where MS is weak.  Which is why Sony will rule
the
> > currently contested turf, and MS will move upscale, positioning the Xbox
2
> > as a living-room device, a PC-TV convergence appliance.  Can MS succeed
> > here?  Watch BMW and wireless convergence devices (cells, PDAs).  If MS
> can
> > get BMW's UI back on track, they might be able to win the battle for yer
> > couch.



> > > On Wed, 05 Mar 2003 20:00:22 GMT, "Steve Smith"

> > > >My sources say MS wants the Xbox Next (i.e., Lite, w/o a HD, with a
> lower
> > > >price point) in stores before Xmas.  That would tend to indicate both
> the
> > > >PS3 and the Xbox 2 (Internet Appliance/Set-Top Convergence Duz-All)
> will
> > > >roll out before Xmas '04.  Exciting times, huh?

> > > Damn.

> > > The other thing I'm wondering is how much a machine with 72 RISC chips
> > > is going to cost.  Even if they sell at half or one third of the cost
> > > to build, that's got to be like $3k to 4k at least...  Not to mention
> > > the cooling requirements, the mainframe-sized case, etc.  Sounds like
> > > a killer machine if what they're proposing is true, but just looking
> > > at how much similar RISC solutions (well as close as we can get, like
> > > a fully loaded Sunfire) cost, I dunno.

> > > Jason

Steve Smit

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Steve Smit » Fri, 07 Mar 2003 23:39:50

In re 4. (below), I should reiterate: Sony is at least as interested as
Microsoft in convergence...maybe more so.  MS is opportunistic; Sony is

------------------
Besides the PlayStation 3 game console, Sony and its partners, IBM and
Toshiba, hope to use the same basic chip design -- which organizes small
groups of microprocessors to work together like bees in a hive -- for a
range of computing devices, from tiny handheld personal digital assistants
to the largest corporate servers.

If key technical hurdles are overcome, the "cell microprocessor" technology,
described in a patent Sony quietly secured in September, could help the
Japanese electronics giant achieve the industry's holy grail: a cheap,
all-in-one box for the home that can record television shows, surf the Net
in 3-D, play music and run movie-like video games.
------------------


> 1. They can...and will.

> 2. When a game like Gran Turismo can gross over a billion U.S. dollars,
it's
> worth the "gut ache".

> 3. Blue laser.

> 4. No, that's the Xbox 2.



> > 1. they still arn't sure if they can do it and 2. Programing will be a
gut
> > ache and i dought many programmers will take the time. 3. with all that
> > proccessing power how big will the games be and on what type of cd will
it
> > come and 4. i have also heard that the p3 is no longer looking at being
a
> > concole machine, its being developed simular to a settop box that will
> > handle every need of the home.


> > > From a siliconvalley.com news story:

> > > "With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a single
chip:
> > > eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which controls eight auxiliary
> > > processors.

> > > "Using sophisticated software to manage the workload, the PowerPC
> > processors
> > > will divide complicated problems into smaller tasks and tap as many of
> the
> > > auxiliary processors as necessary to tackle them.

> > > "...Sony and its partners believe that if they can coordinate those
> > > processors at maximum efficiency, the PS3 will be able to process a
> > trillion
> > > math operations per second -- the equivalent of 100 Intel Pentium 4
> chips
> > > and 1,000 times faster than processing power of the PS2."

> > > Or abt. 500 times faster than the Xbox.

Alex 'pez' Porazinsk

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Alex 'pez' Porazinsk » Sat, 08 Mar 2003 02:21:06

read this article from WAY BACK when, may 2001 when wired first covered the
story of the ps3 and its forerunner, the GSCUBE.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/9.05/gs3.html

amazing stuff.

and as regards to SDRAM cards, the company i work for are aiming for an
early release of 2005 for our 5gig SDRAM cards, amazing things these, tiny
but mighty.

pez


Jason Moy

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Jason Moy » Sat, 08 Mar 2003 02:42:35

On Thu, 06 Mar 2003 12:14:57 GMT, "Steve Smith"


>Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich as
>Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping the
>PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
>they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.

Even if they were able to attain chips at the cost of $50 each (which
is a fraction of what RISC, chips, PowerPC in particular, cost to
manufacture), you'd be looking at $3600 for the CPU's alone.  I highly
suspect that the 72-cpu thing is either a***or mis-reported news (by
whomever you took that info from, not you).

Currently the most powerful machine you can buy (not counting
supercomputers here) in terms of sheer processing power is a Sunfire
15k which supports 106 1.2gHz UltraSparc III CPU's (which cost
roughtly the same as a current PowerPC to produce).  Base price for
the 72 CPU model is $3.052,730.00.  Now, I'm not going to claim that
the production costs of a 72 CPU PowerPC based machine is going to
even be 1/100th of that (doubtful a PS3 would have 288GB of RAM or a
72GB disk), but still.

Jason

Magnus Svensso

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Magnus Svensso » Sat, 08 Mar 2003 10:48:31



>On Thu, 06 Mar 2003 12:14:57 GMT, "Steve Smith"

>>Sony wouldn't be doing this if the PS3 was going to cost MORE.  As rich as
>>Sony is, they know they can't bleed MS to death by underpricing/dumping the
>>PS2/3 (MS is losing a billion bucks a year on the Xbox - at this rate,
>>they'll be broke by A.D. 2400!)  Chips are cheap.  HDs are expensive.

>Even if they were able to attain chips at the cost of $50 each (which
>is a fraction of what RISC, chips, PowerPC in particular, cost to
>manufacture), you'd be looking at $3600 for the CPU's alone.  I highly
>suspect that the 72-cpu thing is either a***or mis-reported news (by
>whomever you took that info from, not you).

hint:

"With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a
----->single chip:<-----  eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which
controls eight auxiliary processors."

Jason Moy

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Jason Moy » Sat, 08 Mar 2003 11:09:46

On Fri, 07 Mar 2003 02:48:31 +0100, Magnus Svensson


>"With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a
>----->single chip:<-----  eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which
>controls eight auxiliary processors."

Ahhhh.  Yeah that should be a bit of a clue I suppose.

Still, I've been reading that the early 16-cpu version of the PS3
takes up about 10 rack spaces and requires an SGI workstation as a
controller.  While I have faith that they'll sort everything out, I
still can't see the cost being remotely reasonable in the near future.

Jason

Magnus Svensso

Is this the death of the Xbox?

by Magnus Svensso » Sat, 08 Mar 2003 12:48:05



>On Fri, 07 Mar 2003 02:48:31 +0100, Magnus Svensson

>>"With the PS3, Sony will apparently put 72 processors on a
>>----->single chip:<-----  eight PowerPC microprocessors, each of which
>>controls eight auxiliary processors."

>Ahhhh.  Yeah that should be a bit of a clue I suppose.

>Still, I've been reading that the early 16-cpu version of the PS3
>takes up about 10 rack spaces and requires an SGI workstation as a
>controller.

Yeah, but that's probably an emulator. Don't put too much stock in
that. I've seen xilinx emulators of relatively simple integrated
circuits that cost hundreds of thousands of dollars.

If they can fit it on one chip, cost isn't necessarily the issue.
There's a limit how expensive one chip can be, especially given these
quantities. While I'm sure they're banking on progress in foundry
manufacturing processes, it's possible, I guess.


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