Well, off-topic, but here we are . . .
Fisher's claim that "crime" has been "steadily declining" over the last two
decades is a bit troubling, given that (a) violent crime rates hardly show
that to be true [see TABLE A. below] (except in the minsicule way of
comparing them to pop. increase), and while (b) serious violent crime by
the youth of the ages from 12-17 seems to remain on the whole hovering
somewhere under 1,000,000 yearly [TABLE B], that too hardly represents a
major decline, but rather a series of spikes and declinations. Property
crime ( http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/proptrd.txt ), however, does
seem to be on a real decline, from a victimization rate of 496.1 per 1000
households in 1980, to 217.4 per 1000 in 1998. All information is from
the U.S. Dept. of Justice ( http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov ), a decent source,
though not irrefutable, I suppose.
I do apologize for imposing this, again, completely off-topic response, but
I hate to see complacencies and sound-bites being tossed off as the truth,
and Fisher's response to Bruce K. was an example of just that. I offer
this, not as a replacement "truth" but as a counter to Fisher's misguided,
simplified (and much bandied-about in the wider population) claim of a
"trend."
David K.
-----------------
TABLE A.
Bureau of Justice Statistics
Four measures of serious violent crime
Serious Violent Crimes (including homicide)
Total Victimizations Crimes
violent reported recorded by
Year crime to the police the police Arrests
1973 3,590,500 1,861,000 715,900 392,700
1974 3,800,000 2,030,000 791,000 462,900
1975 3,594,700 1,976,100 844,100 441,100
1976 3,613,300 2,039,600 822,800 414,600
1977 3,662,500 1,966,800 845,700 438,500
1978 3,626,100 1,879,800 894,100 469,900
1979 3,834,800 2,020,500 998,700 467,700
1980 3,794,400 2,037,500 1,108,300 482,900
1981 4,101,700 2,217,900 1,125,000 496,600
1982 3,926,200 2,232,700 1,108,300 547,400
1983 3,455,500 1,877,400 1,064,900 516,600
1984 3,683,300 2,003,500 1,081,800 501,600
1985 3,358,400 1,926,500 1,126,700 506,800
1986 3,284,700 1,900,200 1,268,800 565,000
1987 3,424,900 1,987,800 1,265,300 568,100
1988 3,563,000 1,942,000 1,336,700 600,000
1989 3,533,700 1,847,800 1,405,000 666,100
1990 3,500,600 1,949,200 1,556,800 722,400
1991 3,712,000 2,133,000 1,632,700 738,200
1992 3,987,000 2,161,000 1,657,300 722,700
1993 4,191,000 2,218,500 1,648,100 716,100
1994 4,116,000 2,110,800 1,605,600 778,800
1995 3,493,500 1,848,600 1,549,900 796,200
1996 3,260,000 1,740,400 1,444,600 729,900
1997 3,039,000 1,741,800 1,405,200 717,800
1998 2,776,800 1,587,900 1,319,800 675,900
Note:The serious violent crimes included are rape, robbery, aggravated
assault,
and homicide. Because of changes made to the victimization survey,
data
prior to 1992 are adjusted to make them comparable to data collected
under
the redesigned methodology. Estimates for 1993 to 1998 are based
on collection year while earlier estimates are based on data year.
The measures of violent crime come from two sources of data:
1) The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) a household survey
ongoing since 1972 that interviews about 80,000 persons age 12 and
older
in 43,000 households twice each year about their victimizations from
crime.
2) The Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) that collects information on crimes
and arrests
reported by law enforcement authorities to the FBI.
Definitions:
Total violent crime:
The number of homicides recorded by police plus the number of rapes,
robberies, and aggravated assaults from the victimization survey
whether or not they were reported to the police. From the NCVS +
homicide
from the UCR.
Victimizations reported to the police:
The number of homicides recorded by police plus the number of rapes,
robberies, and aggravated assaults from the victimization survey
that victims said were reported to the police. From the NCVS +
homicide
from the UCR.
Crimes recorded by the police
The number of homicides, forcible rapes, robberies, and aggravated
assaults
included in the Uniform Crime Reports of the FBI excluding commercial
robbery and those
that involved victims under age 12. From the UCR.
Arrests for violent crimes:
The number of persons arrested for homicide, forcible rape, robbery or
aggravated assault as reported by law enforcement agencies to the FBI.
From the UCR.
----------------
TABLE B
Bureau of Justice Statistics
National Criminal Victimization Survey
Victim's perception of the age of the offender
in serious violent crime, 1973-97
(rape, robbery, aggravated assault, homicide)
Number of offenders
12-17 18+ Unknown
1973 921,000 2,342,000 296,000
1974 879,000 2,580,000 309,000
1975 792,000 2,442,000 336,000
1976 860,000 2,455,000 284,000
1977 837,000 2,531,000 271,000
1978 832,000 2,539,000 228,000
1979 844,000 2,767,000 206,000
1980 812,000 2,614,000 365,000
1981 917,000 2,947,000 224,000
1982 747,000 2,929,000 239,000
1983 746,000 2,391,000 300,000
1984 739,000 2,671,000 329,000
1985 652,000 2,438,000 256,000
1986 618,000 2,358,000 286,000
1987 657,000 2,354,000 393,000
1988 703,000 2,507,000 324,000
1989 680,000 2,457,000 369,000
1990 785,000 2,399,000 297,000
1991 811,000 2,398,000 481,000
1992 925,000 2,726,000 294,000
1993 1,108,000 2,733,000 329,000
1994 1,031,000 2,636,000 406,000
1995 812,000 2,240,000 205,000
1996 805,000 2,148,000 276,000
1997 706,000 2,027,000 261,000
Note: Because of changes made to the victimization
survey, data prior to 1992 are adjusted to make them
comparable to data collected under the redesigned
methodology.
Age 12-17 includes victimizations in which the victim
perceived that at least one offender was age 12-17.
"David G Fisher" <dav...@home.com> wrote in message
news:0C%w4.133201$j63.2987117@news1.rdc2.pa.home.com...
> American schools? If you are implying they are dangerous, there is a 1 in
> 10,000,000 chance of being killed in an American school. About the same as
> being struck by lightning. American schools are about as safe a place as
> there is.
> Also, crime in America has been steadily declining for the past 20 years,
> and the crime rate is at it's lowest level in 30 years.
> Don't believe the hype.
> David G Fisher
> "Bruce Kennewell" <bru...@tpg.com.au> wrote in message
> news:38c0a57e@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
> > Very similar to what we say about being far from American schools and
> > shopping malls, mate.
> > --
> > Regards,
> > Bruce Kennewell,
> > Canberra, Australia.
> > ---------------------------
> > Zonkie <zonk@my_pants.teletubbies.net> wrote in message
> > news:89o8rn$g73$1@uranium.btinternet.com...
> > > In article <38bfa...@dnews.tpgi.com.au>, "Bruce Kennewell"
> > <bru...@tpg.com.au> wrote:
> > > >From: "Bruce Kennewell" <bru...@tpg.com.au>
> > > >Got the poops coz you can't join in, Z?
> > > The thought of being this far from Australia helps me sleep at night,
> > Bruce.
> > > Z.
> > > Please remove my_pants when replying.
> > -----------== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com, Uncensored Usenet News
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