rec.autos.simulators

Y2k paranoia

ric

Y2k paranoia

by ric » Sat, 12 Dec 1998 04:00:00

jvinc...@wizvax.net (Jeff Vincent) wrote:
> Rick,
> Here's an article I scanned in from today's paper ("Times Union" in
> Albany, NY).  Any comments?
> -----blatent copyright violation follows-----

> Experts Easing on Dire Y2K Predictions

>    The sky is falling.  Or, it's not.  We
> speak, of course, of the level of
> concern over the Year 2000 bug.

>    "Our perspective right now is that
> the basic infrastructure of the country
> will hold," John Koskinen, chairman of
> the President's Council on Year 2000
> Conversion, said in an interview with
> Knight Ridder Newspapers.

He said "Our perspective right now".

> "The banking
> system is in very good shape."

Relatively speaking.

All US banks vowed to depositors that they will be done with remediation
by 12/31/98 "with all of 1999 for testing".  So far not a *single* bank
of  more than 9000 member banks have announced their completion.  Would
YOU draw Mr. Koskinen's conclusion that "banking is in very good shape"?

HINT: There are 12 working days left for all 9000 banks to get it done.

>    This is not to say the Y2K concern
> -- that when the year 2000 arrives
> computers not modified in time will
> think the 00 at the end of the year
> means 1900 or nothing at all and,
> thus, will go haywire -- should be
> ignored.

(...)

>    Many experts now say they are
> seeing a growing Y2K paranoia in the
> country.

Paranoia is an irrational fear.  A shrink can't 'hypnotize' Y2K away.
It's real.

>  Koskinen and three other
> experts interviewed several days ago
> have softened statements they made
> earlier in the year.  Some had
> predicted that year 2000 problems
> would shut down banks and bring the
> American infrastructure tumbling
> down, Knight Ridder says.

Koskinen himself stated for the record that the highest priority of the
president's year 2000 council was to prevent a panic.  That means lots
of happy faced reports overshadowing concrete evidence of our dire
situation.

The last thing the government wants is a panic with people taking their
money out of banks.

>    "I'm more positive than I was six
> months ago." said Sen. Robert
> Bennett, a Utah Republican who is
> chairman of the Senate Special
> Committee on the Year 2OOO
> Technology Problem.

I can't see why the Senator is *more* positive about the government
receiving yet another 'D' grade for it's Y2K work.  Or about the DoD
caught yet a SECOND time falsifying remediation certificates.  Or, with
*every* government agency missing it's September 30, 1998 deadline.

Again, prevent panic at all costs - even the truth.

> "A fairly major
> disruption will come of this.

He said "major disruption".  Hello?  Anyone home?  Hello?  Hello?

> But I'm
> now beginning to think the overseas
> problem will affect us more than I
> thought and that the U.S. is in better
> shape than I thought."

The Senator certainly has a point.  The GartnerGroup found the US to be
18 - 24 months *ahead* of any other nation in fixing Y2K problems.  But
that by itself doesn't put us in good shape.  In fact, if we were 100%
remediated and fully tested TODAY, those other countries will bring us
down at the speed of electricity.

>   Jim Cassell, author of a recent
> Gartner Group research study that
> advises Americans not to go
> overboard, and Canadian computer
> programmer Peter de Jager,
> generally recognized as the first to
> bring the year 2000 problem into the
> public arena, now concur there might
> be too much alarm.

Keep in mind, the denialist are quick to throw the 'ol "self-fulfilling
prophesy" bullshit at the doomsayers.  So for now, at the expense of
telling it like it REALLY is, they say it is "semi-bad".

It's too early to alarm the folks, now.  Right?  Can't do that, we still
have jobs.

>    Any serious year 2000-related
> computer problems that result in
> power-plant shutdowns or interrupt
> critical services after midnight Dec.
> 31, 1999, should be repaired within
> days or even hours of the problem,
> Cassell told Knight Ridder.  And,
> because New Year's Eve 1999 falls on
> a Friday, businesses and governments
> will have Saturday and Sunday to fix
> any problems.

LOL LOL

In other words, they expect the gullible reader to accept that what they
couldn't fix after YEARS of trying, they can fix in a few days or hours.

If they can fix it _that_ fast with the power and phones down, then why
don't they just shut down power and phones _now_ and get it done....say
a few days from now?  No?

>  Gartner Group analysts based
> their projections on data gathered
> from 15,000 companies in 87
> countries.

> -----end of blatent copyright violation-----

>    Hmmmm, I didn't see the months or years of disruption or the three
> billion dead in that article...  Sounds more like a long, lazy weekend
> to me.  It seems that some of your doomsday heroes have cooled their
> rhetoric.

You got the "rhetoric" part correct.

Can you be honest with yourself and, at the same time, buy into this
moronic pussyfooting?  They are preventing a mass panic now, only to
cause an even MORE damaging panic later.

You won't find a single fact that supports these "experts" (interested
experts at best) newfound optimism.  The situation has worsened
considerably.  That part is well-documented.

Remember 6 months ago when the GartnerGroup pegged Y2K cost worldwide at
300 billion dollars?  Now, the estimate has increased to over 1 TRILLION
dollars.  What you may not take into account is the fact that increasing
the costs of repair tri-fold will have a likewise affect on the lead
time for those same repairs.  Some insiders believe costs will surpass
the 2 TRILLION mark before we fully realize the mind-boggling scope and
magnitude of this problem. That is why the deadlines are not met AT ALL,
by ANYONE - the job gets bigger _faster_ than it's completed.

Y2K is far worse than anyone ever thought possible.  The world is
literally moving BACKWARDS in tackling the 'bug' while at the same time
the number of days left until 010100 dwindle away.

This is the status of Y2K today: 75% of all US businesses which gross
less than 50 million dollars HAVE NOT EVEN STARTED.  Two-thirds of _all_
county governments in the US HAVE NOT EVEN STARTED.  What about these
yet-to-be-figured costs?  By the time they BEGIN to inventory their
problems, they should have already FINISHED remediation and be well into
testing.  There isn't a slight chance these companies and counties will
have a working system in place at rollover time.  And the US is 18 - 24
ahead of _every_ other country?  I say 3 billion killed by Y2K is a
gross underestimate.

Rick

The American Red Cross suggests taking your money out of banks!

                    "Plan to keep cash in
                     a safe place, and withdraw money
                     from your bank in small amounts
                     well in advance of 12/31/99 to
                     avoid long lines at the bank at the
                     last minute."

"avoid long lines"..yeah right.  An hour too late is better than 2
months early.

                    "Be prepared to relocate to a
                     shelter for warmth and protection
                     during a prolonged power outage or
                     if for any other reason local
                     officials request or require that
                     you leave your home."

"Require that I leave my home"?  No martial law for me, thanks.

http://www.redcross.org/disaster/safety/y2k.html


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